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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.