How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.